🔹 Reasons They Might Cooperate

  1. Common Enemy: The U.S. & NATO
    • All three countries oppose Western-led economic sanctions and military influence.
    • They see U.S. alliances (NATO, AUKUS, QUAD, South Korea-Japan cooperation) as threats.
  2. Military Coordination
    • China & Russia hold joint military drills (e.g., Vostok 2022, naval patrols).
    • North Korea & Russia have increased defense ties (Putin & Kim Jong-un’s 2023 meeting).
    • China supports North Korea diplomatically but avoids military commitments.
  3. Economic & Energy Ties
    • Russia sells oil & gas to China and North Korea, bypassing Western sanctions.
    • China is North Korea’s largest trading partner and economic lifeline.

🔸 Why a Formal Alliance Is Unlikely

  1. Mistrust & Diverging Interests
    • China doesn’t fully trust Russia—historical border disputes and competition in Central Asia.
    • Russia wants to avoid dependence on China, preferring to act independently.
    • China is wary of North Korea’s unpredictability (nuclear tests cause regional instability).
  2. China’s Strategic Caution
    • China avoids formal military alliances (even with Russia) to maintain economic ties with the West.
    • Beijing prefers economic dominance over military entanglements.
  3. North Korea’s Isolation
    • Kim Jong-un wants foreign support but doesn’t want to be controlled.
    • China & Russia wouldn’t want to be dragged into North Korea’s conflicts (e.g., with South Korea or the U.S.).

🚨 What Could Happen Instead?

  1. Closer Defense & Economic Cooperation (but not a full alliance).
  2. Increased arms deals between Russia & North Korea.
  3. Joint military exercises with China & Russia.
  4. Informal coordination in international politics (e.g., blocking UN sanctions).

🔮 Final Verdict: No Official Alliance, but Growing Cooperation

  • A "Russia-China-North Korea NATO" is unlikely, but they will continue supporting each other in military, trade, and diplomacy.
  • China will remain cautious, preferring to keep trade ties with the West open.
  • Russia and North Korea are strengthening ties, but not enough for a formal pact.