Following the principle of Occam's razor, the simplest explanation (that this is a real physical non-simulated universe) makes more sense than assuming an extremely complex simulation scenario with no proof. Additionally the universe follows consistent physical laws without any observed glitches that would suggest we're in a simulation. Things seem to flow continuously in predictable ways pointing to a real universe. Lastly, accurately simulating human consciousness, emotions, and personal experiences poses another monumental challenge for simulation theories. The complexity of our inner lives might be impossible to replicate in a simulation.

So in summary while simulation theories are intriguing, the immense complexity required, lack of evidence, and continuity of physical laws suggest we probably don't live in a simulation. The idea that this is a real physical universe fits more closely with scientific observation and principles like Occams razor.

But it's still fun to speculate!