Discovery and Characteristics
- Discovery Date: December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) station in Chile. source
- Size: Estimated to be between 40 and 100 meters (130 to 330 feet) in diameter. source
Impact Probability
- Potential Impact Date: December 22, 2032.
- Current Risk Assessment: Approximately a 1.2% chance of impacting Earth, which translates to a 98.8% probability of a safe passage. source
Risk Classification
- Torino Scale Rating: Level 3 out of 10, indicating a close encounter with a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of causing localized destruction. source
Monitoring Efforts
- Agencies Involved: NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and other international bodies are actively tracking 2024 YR4.
- Future Observations: Continuous monitoring is expected to refine the asteroid's trajectory, with the possibility of downgrading its threat level as more data becomes available. source
Potential Impact Consequences
- Energy Release: If an impact were to occur, the energy released could be equivalent to several megatons of TNT, leading to significant localized damage.
Conclusion
While the current probability of impact is low, 2024 YR4 remains a subject of close observation. As astronomers gather more data, they expect to refine the asteroid's orbit and reduce the uncertainty surrounding its trajectory. The public is advised to stay informed through official channels for updates on this near-Earth object.
For a more detailed overview, you might find this video informative: 
